AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed the Monday session with most contracts down 2 to 3 cents. Pressure was felt from widespread rains across the WCB. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 1.097 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on August 16. That was down 13.13% from the week prior but 52.27% larger than the same week in 2017. Total YTD exports are now lagging last year by just 0.28% with just over 2 weeks left in the 17/18 MY. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report put the corn crop at 85% dough stage (72% avg) and 44% dented (26% avg) as of August 19. Condition ratings were down 5 points on the Brugler500 index, with gd/ex ratings 2% lower to 78%. This is a typical decline for mid-August.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.62, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.76 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

May 19 Corn closed at $3.95 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures saw fractional to 1 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Monday. Those gains were limited by rains rolling across the Midwest. Later in the afternoon, President Trump stated he does not expect much out of this week’s talks and has “no time frame” for coming to an agreement with China. Nearby soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil up 31 points. Export Inspections of soybeans in the week of 8/16 totaled 639,001 MT. That was 4.5% lower than the same time of last year, but 9.9% larger than the previous week. Accumulated YTD exports are now 3.2% lower than the same time last year, as we head into the last 2 weeks of the MY. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report indicated that 91% of the US soybean crop was setting pods vs. the average of 83%. Crop ratings were down 1% to 65% gd/ex, while the Brugler500 Index lost 2 points to 367.

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.81 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.93 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.27 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $328.20, down $1.90,

Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.54, up $0.31

Wheat

Wheat futures ended Monday with most nearby contracts 13 to 18 1/4 cents in the red. The Monday morning Export Inspections report tallied all wheat shipments during the week of August 16 at just 345,375 MT. That was 29.14% lower than last week’s report and 41.72% below the same week in 2017. NASS showed the winter wheat harvest nearly done at 97% complete, as the Northern states finish up. Spring wheat harvest is progressing, with 60% of the acres harvested vs. the normal pace of 44% for this date. The spring crop was rated at 74% gd/ex down 1% from last week, with the Brugler500 down 3 to 379.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/4, down 18 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/4, down 17 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.94 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished the Monday session mixed. The front months were 5 to 42.5 cents lower, with back months steady to marginally higher. Feeder cattle futures were mostly a nickel to $1.325 lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up 7 cents from the previous day at $149.66. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon, with the Ch/Se spread widening to $11.69. Choice boxes were up $2.60 at $213.98, while Select boxes were up $1.37 at $202.29. USDA FI weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 118,000 head on Monday. That is up steady with the previous week and 1,000 head above the same week in 2017.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $109.075, down $0.350,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $110.450, down $0.425,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $114.575, down $0.050,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.625, down $1.325

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.100, down $0.725

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.275, down $0.575

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures posted 50 cent to $2.125 losses in most contracts on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.27 on August 16, to $52.94. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 41 cents from the day prior to $67.18. The rib and belly primal cuts were the only ones reported lower. The national base hog carcass value was down 37 cents in the Monday PM report, with the weighted average @ $40.21. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 456,000 head on Monday. That is 11,000 head below last week and up 31,000 head from this week last year.

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $56.475, down $2.125,

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $54.225, down $1.050

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $60.850, down $0.800

Cotton

Cotton futures settled with most contracts 109 to 135 points higher on Monday. A weaker US Dollar index was supportive, down 349 points. NASS reported after the close that 86% of the US cotton crop was setting bolls, even with the average, as 17% of the crop had bolls opening (12% avg). The cotton crop conditions were improved 2% to 42% good/ex, with the Brugler500 Index back up 5 points to 305. The Cotlook A index was up 100 points from the previous day at 91.75 cents/lb on August 17. The weekly AWP was updated to 75.45 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 422 points from the previous week.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 83.100, up 135 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 82.700, up 131 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 82.870, up 116 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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