Tesla (TSLA) remains under intense scrutiny on Wall Street. As part of this monitoring and rerating, Goldman Sachs reduced its delivery estimates for the EV behemoth through 2027. Once the face of unrelenting innovation, the recent delivery figures from Tesla present a less rosy picture. 

Goldman’s experts cite “brand and reputation” concerns in addition to declining monthly figures in major markets such as the U.S., Europe, and China. Goldman now expects Q2 2025 deliveries of merely 365,000 units, below their previous estimate of 410,000 and short of the consensus of 417,000. The bank also lowered its 12-month price target to $285 (down from $295) while continuing to hold a “Neutral” rating.

Tesla shares remain highly volatile. Shares are up 9.3% in the past month but down 5.3% in the past five days. Ongoing fears of further share price declines and weakening consumer attitudes hang over investor sentiment.

About Tesla Stock

Tesla (TSLA) is a defining electric vehicle maker that also has its hands in energy storage, autonomous vehicles, and robotics. The company is valued near $994 billion as of this writing but has recently been a part of the trillion dollar club. 

The stock has ranged from $167.41 to $488.54 over the last 52 weeks, its typical volatility on display. The stock is up almost 88% over the last 12 months, well ahead of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX). Short-term performance, however, has been unstable. Shares are down nearly 20% in the year to date.

Valuation is one key issue. The stock has a lofty forward price-earnings ratio of 211.23 and a trailing ratio of 159.54x — multiples well in excess of its peer group. Its price-sales multiple of 9.73x and price-to-cash-flow of 76.2x also reflect a rich premium. The numbers indicate that investors continue to factor in long-term growth, but the risk of the downside is increasing should execution slip.

Tesla Misses Delivery Expectations Again

Tesla produced 336,681 units in Q1 2025, falling short of expectations despite the “continued good ramp of the new Model Y,” as per the company. However, analysts are skeptical that its delivery woes can all be attributed to the refreshed Model Y. Quarterly revenue of $19.3 billion and net income of $409 million are both down substantially from last year’s levels. 

In Q2, Goldman Sachs anticipates deliveries of 335,000 to 395,000 units based on June performance and Tesla’s use of incentives. Its expectations for deliveries in the full year were also reduced. Goldman now expects Tesla to deliver 1.575 million units in 2025, 1.865 million in 2026, and 2.15 million in 2027. These numbers are down considerably from previous estimates and indicate the effect of declining brand popularity.

What Do Analysts Expect for Tesla Stock?

The stock has a mixed standing with a current “Hold” consensus rating. As there are still target price predictions as bullish as $500, the median analyst target price is $291.89, suggesting downside of 11% from its current price. The most bearish target tracked by Barchart is $115, indicative of how far the spread of expectations has stretched.